I am weak,
I buckled and bought a copy of Tumult Hype to see how easy it is to create HTML5.
The answer is quite easy, BUT…
well basically it failed. So I tried uploading the stuff via posterous, but it got quite upset at the.js files, and failed. If I dump it on a site I can FTP to it’ll probably worlk.. but the ease of dropping a flash animation onto a page isn’t quite there…
It works if you can access the site, and position resources properly, have a look: http://www.wychwolf.com/observatron/observatron.html